BREE publishes forecast
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) has published its quarterly forecasting of the country’s resources and energy commodity export earnings for the 2012-13 year, which are now tipped to be in excess of $189 billion.
The Resources and Energy Quarterly September Quarter report shows increases across the majority of major minerals and energy commodities, with the largest increases in volumes projected for LNG (21 per cent), thermal coal (14 per cent) and metallurgical coal (12 per cent).
"The latest forecasts of volumes and prices show two distinct trends. First, the prices of many resources have moderated from historic highs in 2011 and further declines are expected over the medium term in US$ terms relative to these peaks. Second, Australian export volumes, especially in terms of bulk commodities, are growing rapidly and are expected to do so for several years to come" said Professor Quentin Grafton, BREE's Executive Director and Chief Economist.
Growth in exports volumes of iron ore are also forecast to remain robust, increasing by 8 per cent to over 500 million tonnes in 2012–13.
According to the report, the robust growth in LNG exports in the coming year reflects the start up of major projects, such as the Pluto LNG project, which will increase the country’s LNG capacity from around 20 million tonnes to over 24 million tonnes.
"This forecast, as emphasised in the macroeconomic outlook, is based on assumed improvements in world, OECD and Chinese economic growth in 2013 and the assumption that the Australian dollar will remain close to parity with the US dollar in 2013" said Professor Grafton.
The full report can be found here