The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released its two-year outlook for the adequacy of power systems across Australia, together with a report of Electrical Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), which looks at power production for the longer term over three to ten years.

 

The AEMO concludes that “the power system is expected to have sufficient supply capacity to meet the forecast peak demand plus Minimum Reserve Level (MRL) for all National Electricity Market (NEM) regions”, and as a consequence it will not invoke the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) tender process.

 

AEMO’s review of the energy adequacy of the power system and a range of other power system measures resulted in the conclusion that “the power system is expected to be able to meet all relevant reliability and security criteria”.

 

The two-year outlook was based on a series of power system studies using the most recent information for electricity demand and minimum reserve levels. In addition to reporting on the expected outcomes, a sensitivity scenario has also been examined which assumes that 995 MW of existing coal fired generation is unavailable across the NEM regions from April 2011. The report noted that “although it is unlikely that such an outcome would occur, this scenario is included as it provides a sensitivity study examining the potential for key measures to cause issues with power system adequacy.”

 

These results show that even with the retirement of 995 MW of base load generation, the power system still retains sufficient capability to return to a secure operating state within 30 minutes of a credible contingency event occurring.

 

In its 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the AEMO provides energy and maximum demand forecasts, together with updated NEM generation capacities for each region for the next ten years. It finds that, under a scenario of medium economic growth, by 2013-14 Queensland could face a 341 megawatt shortage and require new investment in power generation, a year earlier than predicted in the previous ESOO, as a result of an increase in Queensland’s minimum reserve level (MRL) and the mothballing over the next two years of the Swanbank B Power Station. To delay this shortfall until the following year, Queensland will require an additional 726 MW of local capacity in the form of new generation or demand-side investment.

 

For Victoria and South Australia (which were considered as a single region), the low reserve condition (LRC) point, which indicates the point at which new investment could be required to meet the reliability standard, is predicted to occur in 2015-16), two years later than published in last year’s ESOO, primarily due to changes in the MRLs and lower demands in South Australia.

 

To delay this shortfall until the following year, Victoria will require an additional 249 MW of capacity in the form of new generation or demand-side investment. This additional capacity can be installed in either Victoria or South Australia, because reserves can be shared between the regions.

 

Queensland Energy Minister, Stephen Robertson, has responded to the report saying Queensland was well-placed to meet its energy demands.

 

‘‘Queensland is fortunate to have a number of large-scale energy project proposals that should ensure we meet energy demand in 2013-14 and beyond,’’ he said in a statement.

 

“These include ERM Power Ltd’s 500 megawatt Braemar 3 gas power station, Origin Energy’s 500 megawatt Darling Downs Stage 2 gas-fired project and the 44 megawatt solar thermal project at the Kogan Creek power station.’’

 

The two AEMO reports can be found at http://www.aemo.com.au/electricityops/psa2010.html  and

http://www.aemo.com.au/planning/esoo2010.html