Official stats show Australia will see a decline in resource exports of about $117 billion by the end of the decade. 

The latest Department of Industry, Resources and Sciences report for the March quarter predicts a downturn is attributed to a combination of weakened global growth and an increase in global supply.

It is expected to impact the federal treasury and the profitability of resource companies. 

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the expectation of diminished revenue upgrades will be highlighted in the upcoming May budget.

The anticipated slump comes after a period of substantial windfalls for both the federal government and resource producers, fueled by elevated prices for iron ore, coal, and gas. 

These windfalls were a result of market dynamics influenced by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and stimulus measures targeting China's property sector, contributing to Australia's budget surplus last year - the first in 15 years.

While iron ore, Australia's premier export, is projected to maintain high trade values throughout the current year, forecasts predict a downturn in the prices of gas, coal, lithium, and nickel by the decade's close. 

The immediate future still looks relatively bright, with commodity exports expected to reach $417 billion in 2023–24, a modest 10 per cent decline from the previous year's record $466 billion. 

However, by the end of the 2020s, the fall in prices for key commodities like iron ore, coal, and gas is projected to reduce earnings to around $300 billion.

Iron ore revenues are forecast to slightly increase to $136 billion in 2023-24 from $129 billion in 2022–23, only to decrease in subsequent years, reaching approximately $83 billion by 2028–29. 

The coal and gas sectors are also expected to experience declines, with both metallurgical coal, crucial for steelmaking, and thermal coal, used in power stations, predicted to see reduced earnings through to 2030.

Additionally, the nickel and lithium markets, despite their current significance, are anticipated not to recover within the forecast period up to the end of 2029. 

An oversupply of nickel, primarily from Indonesian producers, and reduced physical demand have led to a continued price collapse, prompting some Western Australian miners to halt operations. 

Similarly, lithium, vital for electric vehicle batteries, faces a downturn in export revenues due to soft demand in China, despite a slight increase in export volumes.

The full report is accessible here.